“The Precautionary Principle” with Dr Frank

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“The Precautionary Principle”

Watch out for this one. It is irrational, and can be used to justify just about any decision or behavior. It goes something like this:

“Since there is the possibility that something *could* happen, we should take precautions and do x.”

This leads to all sorts of silly behaviors and decisions.

A more rational approach is to ask what is *most likely* or *certain* to happen, and to plan mitigations for those things based upon the best evidence available. Not merely what is possible. Almost anything is possible.

Follow the data. Which risks have the clearest evidence to justify our attention?

For example, for decades I have been telling my students that “global warming” is not nearly as threatening to human life as a *global pandemic* would be... and we were due for one. (Boy, did I call this one.)

So if we were going to spend vast resources on something that *might* happen with devastating consequences, we should be investing in things that are inevitable over things that might potentially be relatively mildly harmful.

This is one way to distinguish which are the scientifically justified investments and which are merely political agendas.

Because pandemics are inevitable. (Eh, hem...)

And so are asteroid impacts. (I always show my students a picture of the back side of the moon at this point in the lecture.)

And volcanoes, and earthquakes, and solar flares, and wars...

And all these things are more likely to disrupt humanity and to claim myriad human lives.
So don’t fall for it.

Recent incarnations are:

“We should close the schools because children might die.”

“We should force otherwise perfectly healthy people to take an insufficiently tested vaccine, because it might save lives.”

Instead, use the science and the math to set priorities. Don’t build a house of cards. Build a solid foundation, based upon the sturdiest facts at your disposal.

Children are far more likely to die in a car accident than from Covid. Better never allow them to ride in cars...

Certainly we will make mistakes, and some unlikely things are bound to occur. But the fact that there are infinite unlikely things that *could* happen makes it impossible to predict which ones of the myriad possible bad things we should protect against.

Because we simply cannot protect against everything.

So go with the science. Follow the data.

And please... “drive safely.”

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